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The Barrel Shortage Crisis: Your Sales Team is Full of Smart People Who Can't Think

Why 90% of sales hires can't think past their job description

What's up, it's Zayd.

Hiring is the hardest thing I've done building Valley. Everyone warned me about that, but I thought it would be pretty straightforward. “When you know, you know,” and all that.

I was…so wrong.

The reality is that most people are ammunition who think they're barrels. If you don't know what that means, you're about to understand why your sales team executes well but never seems to identify the problems that actually matter.

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  • GTM strategy to go from $0 to $5M ARR (link)

  • The one phrase making prospects tune you out (link)

  • The step-by-step process to grow a business in 2024 (link)

The Two Functions That Actually Matter

Every business has exactly two functions that determine success or failure.

Sales: How people find you, why they want you, how they get you

Delivery: What customers receive, does it solve their problem, do they stay

Everyone you hire solves problems in one of these functions. The question is, are they identifying the right problems; the non-obvious ones.

The Barrel vs Ammunition Framework

This comes from Keith Rabois, and it's probably the most important mental model I've stolen for hiring:

Barrels: Take an idea from conception to reality. Lead people to make it happen. You give them a problem and that's all the instruction they need.

Ammunition: Execute brilliantly when told what to do. Masters of specialization. Require discovery, definition, and direction.

You move as fast as your number of barrels, but we’re in a barrel shortage crisis. Companies are growing, hiring rapidly, and optimizing for execution over strategic thinking. They have people who can run sequences and follow up on leads, but nobody who can look at a 12% close rate and figure out the three systemic issues causing it.

Meanwhile, the rare barrels get promoted quickly, become unavailable, or start their own companies. The talent pool keeps getting more ammunition-heavy.

The fix is easier said than done, but it means identifying which roles actually need strategic thinking and hiring accordingly.

Some roles can be ammunition; inside sales, SDR execution, demo delivery, but you need barrels in positions that require diagnosing problems, adapting strategies, and building new processes.

The 5-Level Talent Hierarchy

Shaan Puri breaks down talent into five levels. Most sales managers hire Level 2 thinking they're getting Level 4:

Level 1: No output despite full direction

Level 2: Output with full DDD (Discovery, Definition, Direction) most employees 

Level 3: Output with DD (you provide Discovery and Definition)

Level 4: Output with D only. True barrels. "We have high churn, fix it."

Level 5: They own entire areas (you ask: "want more equity or cash?")

How to Spot the Difference

Ammunition identifies problems they know how to solve (usually bottom percentile problems)

Barrels identify problems you don't know exist and figure out how to solve them

In sales interviews, ammunition candidates talk about:

  • Their quota attainment

  • How many calls they made

  • Which tools they're familiar with

  • Their process for following up

Barrel candidates talk about:

  • Systems they built or improved

  • Problems they identified that others missed

  • Processes they created from scratch

  • How they diagnosed and fixed performance issues

The Valley Hiring Reality Check

When we're evaluating sales candidates, I ask these questions:

Competence Test: "What do you think Valley's biggest sales challenges are right now?"

  • Ammunition: Talks about things they read on our website

  • Barrels: Ask me 5 questions first, then give thoughtful analysis

Problem Identification: "Tell me about a time you identified a problem your team wasn't aware of."

  • Ammunition: Struggles to answer or gives generic response

  • Barrels: Have multiple examples and can explain their thinking process

Strategic Thinking: "If you joined Valley tomorrow, what would you want to understand first?"

  • Ammunition: Wants to know the process, tools, territory

  • Barrels: Wants to understand why customers buy, why they don't, what competitors do differently

The Culture Fit Reality

Here's my other hiring criterion: "After a long day, would I want to get a beer with this person?"

Startups are constant suffering. You need people worth suffering with.

Hire people whose company you genuinely enjoy during stressful times…because there will be many stressful times.

Why Sales Teams Stay Stuck

Most sales organizations are optimized to hire and manage ammunition. They create detailed playbooks, activity metrics, and standardized processes. Then they wonder why nobody on the team can diagnose why their conversion rates are declining.

You've built a machine that requires barrel-level thinking to optimize but only hired ammunition to operate it.

The result is teams that execute existing strategies perfectly but can't adapt when those strategies stop working. They hit all their activity metrics while missing their revenue goals.

The Real Cost of Wrong Hires

Hiring ammunition when you need barrels actively makes you worse.

Strategic Blindness: Nobody questions whether you're solving the right problems

Innovation Stagnation: Process optimization replaces creative problem-solving

Competitive Disadvantage: You perfect yesterday's tactics while competitors identify tomorrow's opportunities

Cultural Decay: High performers leave because they're tired of working with people who can't think strategically

How to Hire Better

Stop Asking About Results, Start Asking About Problems:

Anyone can hit numbers in a good market with a good product. Can they identify why numbers are declining and fix it?

Test Problem Identification, Not Just Execution:

Give them a real challenge your team is facing and see how they approach it.

Look for Question Quality:

The best candidates ask better questions than they answer.

Check Their Curiosity:

Do they want to understand why things work, or just how to make them work?

How I Can Help?

Let me book sales calls for you while you’re building your barrel team. Seriously.

I built Valley to be your automated SDR and empower AEs. Get started today and watch your calendar fill up with qualified leads.

How can we work together 🏔️

  1. See more of Valley’s messaging examples, feel free to roast them: https://withvalley.notion.site/Cool-Message-Bro-1c0b917b0ed481dab014c465c354b4b8 

  2. Generate more demos for your company using LinkedIn: https://meetings.hubspot.com/zayd-from-valley/tryvalley

  3. Become a Valley partner and get 20% recurring commission for every user you bring in: https://withvalley.notion.site/valley-affiliate-partner-program

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