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- Your ICP Is Probably Wrong, But Changing It Would Mean Admitting You Wasted 6 Months
Your ICP Is Probably Wrong, But Changing It Would Mean Admitting You Wasted 6 Months
We spent 6 months selling to the wrong people... here's how to know if you're making the same mistake
What's up, it's Zayd.
Your ICP is wrong.
At the beginning, I was flattering myself (maybe lying to myself, but whoooo’s to say really), saying that it’s probably just "slightly off,” maybe it "needs some refinement," but I was fundamentally wrong and you probably are too.
The reality is that you're targeting the wrong companies, with the wrong message, solving the wrong problem.
Almost every startup gets their ICP wrong at first, though. The difference between companies that scale and companies that struggle is whether they're willing to admit they got it wrong and fix it before burning through runway.
The uncomfortable truth is that most founders know their ICP is wrong around month 3-4, but they don't change it until month 9-10, because changing your ICP means admitting you wasted 6 months and nobody wants to admit that.
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The ICP Reality Check
Here's how it actually works:
Month 1-2: You launch with an ICP hypothesis based on market research, competitor analysis, and founder intuition. Feels solid.
Month 3-4: You close your first few customers. Celebrate. Then realize these customers don't really match your original ICP. They're adjacent, but not quite what you expected.
Month 5-6: Pattern becomes obvious. Your best customers share characteristics you didn't account for. Your target customers aren't buying, but you've already built positioning around the original ICP.
Month 7-8: Cognitive dissonance. You know the ICP is wrong but you've invested so much in the current positioning. Marketing materials, sales decks, website copy, content strategy; all built around the wrong target.
Month 9-10: Either you admit the mistake and change it, or you keep pushing the wrong ICP and wonder why growth is so hard.
Most companies choose the second path because the first path requires admitting you were wrong.
The Signs Your ICP Is Wrong
Sign 1: Your best customers don't match your target profile
You're targeting mid-market companies but your best customers are all agencies or consultants. You're targeting enterprise but SMBs are the ones actually buying and staying.
If there's a mismatch between who you want to sell to and who actually finds value, you have an ICP problem.
Sign 2: Your win rate is way higher with "non-ideal" customers
You close 40% of deals with companies that don't quite fit your ICP, but only 10% of deals with companies that do fit.
That's your market telling you something.
Sign 3: Your best customers use your product differently than you expected
You built a tool for X use case. Your best customers are using it for Y use case and they're getting better results than the customers using it for X.
Pay attention to how people actually use your product. They are literally telling you what problem they’re solving. Listen to them.
Sign 4: Your churn is lowest in a segment you're not targeting
You're targeting SaaS companies but agencies have way lower churn and higher NPS. Your product-market fit is in a segment you're not even focusing on.
Sign 5: You dread demo calls with your "ideal" customers
When you get a demo with your target ICP, it feels like pushing a boulder uphill. When you get a demo with adjacent segments, it's easy.
If selling to your ICP feels harder than selling to other segments, your ICP is probably wrong.
Why Changing It Is So Hard
Reason 1: Sunk cost fallacy at scale
You've already spent months creating content for this ICP. Built case studies. Developed messaging. Designed marketing materials.
Changing the ICP means throwing all that away and starting over. Nobody wants to do that.
Reason 2: Ego protection
Admitting your ICP was wrong means admitting you misjudged the market. For founders, this feels like admitting failure.
It's not. It's just learning, but it doesn't feel that way.
Reason 3: Team momentum
Your team has been executing against the current ICP for months. Sales knows how to sell to these people. Marketing knows how to reach them.
Changing ICP means retraining everyone. Disrupting momentum. Creating uncertainty.
Reason 4: Investor narrative
You told investors you're targeting X market. Changing to Y market means explaining why you were wrong. That's an uncomfortable conversation.
Reason 5: Fear of starting over
Changing your ICP feels like pressing reset. All that progress, all those learnings, wasted.
Except they're not wasted. You learned what doesn't work. That's valuable.
How to Actually Fix It
Step 1: Audit your best customers
List your top 10 customers by revenue, retention, and satisfaction. Find the patterns.
What industries are they in? What size are they? What problems are they actually solving with your product? How did they find you?
These patterns are your real ICP. The one the market is showing you.
Step 2: Admit the hypothesis was wrong
This is the hardest step. Call a team meeting. Say out loud: "Our original ICP hypothesis was wrong. Here's what we learned."
Rip the band-aid off. Once you admit it, you can fix it.
Step 3: Salvage what you can
You don't have to throw everything away. Some positioning elements will transfer. Some content will be repurposable. Some messaging will still work.
Figure out what's salvageable before you start rebuilding.
Step 4: Build a bridge strategy
Don't just abandon your current pipeline. Build a bridge from old ICP to new ICP.
Keep serving existing customers. Slowly shift new acquisition toward the real ICP. Give your team time to adapt.
Step 5: Update everything systematically
Website first. Then sales materials. Then marketing content. Then case studies.
Do it systematically so nothing falls through the cracks, but move fast. Every day you're targeting the wrong ICP costs money.
The Valley Example
When we started Valley, we thought our ICP was B2B SaaS companies with 50-200 employees. Mid-market companies with established sales teams.
Our best customers were GTM agencies, sales tech companies, and smaller SaaS companies with full-cycle AEs.
The pattern was obvious after a few months. These users already knew outbound. They used Valley to 10x their output, not learn outbound from scratch.
We could have kept pushing mid-market. Spent months trying to educate them on outbound fundamentals.
Instead, we leaned into who was actually succeeding. Agencies and sales tech companies became our core ICP.
Made content for them. Built features for them. Priced for them.
Way easier to sell. Way lower churn. Way better product-market fit.
The Counterargument
"But what if you're just giving up too early? What if the right ICP just takes longer to convert?"
Fair question.
Here's how to know:
If you've had 20+ conversations with your target ICP and can't get traction, it's probably wrong.
If you're getting traction with adjacent segments but not your target, it's probably wrong.
If your best customers don't match your target profile, it's definitely wrong.
Persistence is good, but persistence in the wrong direction is just stubbornness.
The Opportunity Cost
Every month you target the wrong ICP, you're losing:
1. Money: Marketing and sales effort going to the wrong people
2. Time: Runway burning while you chase low-probability deals
3. Learning: You could be getting smarter about your real ICP instead
4. Momentum: Team morale drops when things aren't working
The opportunity cost of staying wrong is higher than the cost of admitting you were wrong.
The Common Traps
Trap 1: "We can serve everyone"
No, you can't. Especially not at the beginning. Pick the segment where you have the clearest product-market fit.
Trap 2: "But the TAM is bigger in our original ICP"
TAM doesn't matter if you can't actually sell to that market. Better to dominate a smaller TAM than fail in a bigger one.
Trap 3: "We already told investors this is our ICP"
Good investors want you to find product-market fit, not stick to a wrong hypothesis. If they punish you for learning, they're bad investors.
Trap 4: "Changing the ICP means we wasted time"
You didn't waste time. You learned what doesn't work. That's not waste, that's progress.
How to Avoid This
Start with multiple ICP hypotheses: Don't bet everything on one target. Test 2-3 simultaneously.
Set a decision point: "After 50 conversations or 90 days, we'll assess what's working."
Track leading indicators: Win rates, sales cycle length, demo-to-close conversion. These tell you faster than revenue.
Talk to your best customers: Ask them why they bought. You'll learn what actually matters.
Be willing to be wrong: Your ego is not more important than your company's survival.
Your ICP is probably wrong. That's fine. Every startup's first ICP hypothesis is wrong.
The companies that win are the ones who figure that out fast and have the humility to change course.
Sunk cost fallacy is real, but so is opportunity cost.
Your runway will thank you.
How I Can Help?
Let me book sales calls for you while you’re changing your ICP. Seriously.
I built Valley to be your automated SDR and empower AEs. Get started today and watch your calendar fill up with qualified leads.
How can we work together 🏔️
See more of Valley’s messaging examples, feel free to roast them: https://withvalley.notion.site/Cool-Message-Bro-1c0b917b0ed481dab014c465c354b4b8
Generate more demos for your company using LinkedIn: https://meetings.hubspot.com/zayd-from-valley/tryvalley
Become a Valley partner and get 20% recurring commission for every user you bring in: https://withvalley.notion.site/valley-affiliate-partner-program
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